Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly reshaping investment, productivity and labour markets, creating significant opportunities for businesses and economies while also presenting new risks, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Report 2026.
Technology investment related to AI contributed an estimated 0.5 percentage point to US GDP growth in 2025, while productivity growth in the United States has accelerated in recent years, partly reflecting the early effects of AI adoption. Private-sector investment in AI could exceed $2 trillion globally in 2026, according to external estimates cited by the IMF.
The adoption of AI is expanding across sectors, with potential productivity gains spanning a broad range of industries and occupations. The IMF highlights Asia's growing role in the AI economy, supported by digital infrastructure, education, regulation and established strengths in semiconductor manufacturing, design and advanced manufacturing.
However, the IMF also points to significant challenges for labour markets. Workers with AI-related skills tend to earn more, while middle-skilled workers whose jobs are highly exposed to automation may face greater disruption. The impact is therefore likely to differ substantially across occupations, regions and income groups.
Businesses also face financial risks as investment in AI infrastructure increases. The IMF warns that if the returns from large, increasingly debt-financed investments fail to meet expectations, a sharp correction in equity valuations could result, potentially causing wealth losses and job cuts.
Risks may also arise from links within the AI ecosystem, including between companies developing data centres and semiconductor manufacturers. The IMF highlights the potential for financial problems at one company to spread to others where firms have close financing, investment or customer relationships.
To help countries navigate these developments, the IMF has developed indexes covering AI preparedness, skills readiness and skills imbalances. These tools assess areas including workforce training, digital infrastructure, venture capital and regulation.
The IMF is also examining AI's wider macroeconomic implications, including its effects on productivity and growth, employment and skills, inequality, financial markets, energy and climate, as well as the implications for economic policy.
The report stresses the need for policymakers to capture the benefits of AI while preparing workers and economies for disruption and monitoring the financial and fiscal risks associated with a potential slowdown in AI investment.
