Global current account balances increased further in 2025, driven primarily by China, where the current account surplus recorded the largest widening in at least two and a half decades. This was offset by some narrowing in the United States and the euro area.
As our latest External Sector Report shows, China’s current account surplus increased by about $300 billion last year, the largest widening in absolute terms since at least 2000, to about 0.6 percent of world GDP. While the US current account deficit narrowed by $69 billion, its balance remained by far the world’s largest, at about 0.9 percent of global GDP, exceeding the combined surpluses of China and the euro area.
The rise in global current account balances comes amid elevated trade tensions and a significant shift in US trade policy. Historically, trade barriers in effect in the past have had no clear impact on aggregate current accounts. The assessment of the impact of recent measures is complicated by other factors, including the AI boom. But it is clear that trade barriers have led to a marked reconfiguration of trade patterns, with a sharp fall in US imports from China accompanied by a rise in US imports from the rest of the world.
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