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AICEP
Agência para o Investimento e Comércio Externo de Portugal

CABEÇALHO

Following a healthy rebound in Q2, the economy lost steam in quarterly terms in Q3, but still recorded growth amid a swift inoculation campaign and stronger tourism activity.

Although a full breakdown is not yet available, the release showed domestic demand strengthened, while the external sector contributed negatively to growth. Turning to Q4, higher energy costs, which have already been felt in producer prices, threaten to hamper momentum, with the daily economic indicator down from its Q3 average in October and the first half of November. 

 

Portugal Economic Growth

 

GDP should return to its pre-pandemic levels in 2022, gaining momentum after a mild recovery in 2021. Incoming EU funds will likely reinforce capital spending, while an improving labor market should boost private consumption. However, political instability and the lack of a budget—necessary for the arrival of EU funds—threaten investment in the first half of the year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 4.9% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP climbing 2.4%. 

Portugal Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million) 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
GDP per capita (EUR) 17,350 18,060 19,024 19,875 20,684
GDP (EUR bn) 180 186 196 204 212
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 1.8 2.0 3.5 2.6 2.2
Consumption (annual variation in %) 1.9 2.6 2.1 2.9 2.3
Investment (annual variation in %) 5.9 2.5 11.5 5.8 6.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.3 4.4 8.4 4.5 3.7
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.0 5.0 8.1 5.7 5.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.1 2.3 3.9 0.1 -2.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 2.5 2.7 4.1 4.1 4.4
Unemployment Rate 12.4 11.1 8.9 7.0 6.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 131 132 126 122 118
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.4 -1.9 -3.0 -0.4 0.2
Money (annual variation in %) 4.4 8.9 8.0 8.1 6.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 0.3 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.5 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) -3.3 -2.7 3.3 2.7 0.0
Policy Interest Rate (%) -   -   -   -   -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %) 10.7 -11.9 15.2 -12.2 10.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD) -   -   -   -   -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) -   -   -   -   -  
Current Account (% of GDP) 0.2 1.2 1.4 -0.6 -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.8 -0.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion) -10.7 -11.4 -14.7 -17.6 -20.4

 

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