Although a full breakdown is not yet available, the release showed domestic demand strengthened, while the external sector contributed negatively to growth. Turning to Q4, higher energy costs, which have already been felt in producer prices, threaten to hamper momentum, with the daily economic indicator down from its Q3 average in October and the first half of November.
Portugal Economic Growth
GDP should return to its pre-pandemic levels in 2022, gaining momentum after a mild recovery in 2021. Incoming EU funds will likely reinforce capital spending, while an improving labor market should boost private consumption. However, political instability and the lack of a budget—necessary for the arrival of EU funds—threaten investment in the first half of the year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 4.9% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP climbing 2.4%.
Portugal Economy Data
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
| Population (million) |
10.4 |
10.3 |
10.3 |
10.3 |
10.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) |
17,350 |
18,060 |
19,024 |
19,875 |
20,684 |
| GDP (EUR bn) |
180 |
186 |
196 |
204 |
212 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) |
1.8 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) |
1.9 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) |
5.9 |
2.5 |
11.5 |
5.8 |
6.6 |
| Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) |
6.3 |
4.4 |
8.4 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
| Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) |
8.0 |
5.0 |
8.1 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) |
2.1 |
2.3 |
3.9 |
0.1 |
-2.3 |
| Retail Sales (annual variation in %) |
2.5 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
| Unemployment Rate |
12.4 |
11.1 |
8.9 |
7.0 |
6.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) |
131 |
132 |
126 |
122 |
118 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) |
-4.4 |
-1.9 |
-3.0 |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
| Money (annual variation in %) |
4.4 |
8.9 |
8.0 |
8.1 |
6.5 |
| Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
| Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %) |
0.5 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
| Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) |
-3.3 |
-2.7 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Stock Market (annual variation in %) |
10.7 |
-11.9 |
15.2 |
-12.2 |
10.2 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Current Account (% of GDP) |
0.2 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
- |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) |
0.4 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
0.8 |
-0.2 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) |
-10.7 |
-11.4 |
-14.7 |
-17.6 |
-20.4 |