Agência para o Investimento e Comércio Externo de Portugal


According to the Flash Estimate by INE – Instituto Nacional de Estatística, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in real terms, recorded a year-on-year rate of change of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023 (3.2 percent in the previous quarter).

The contribution of domestic demand to the year-on-year growth rate of GDP remained positive, although lower than that observed in the precedent quarter, due to the deceleration of private consumption and the decline in investment, determined by a negative contribution from the changes in inventories, with an acceleration in exports of goods and services and a slowdown in imports of goods and services. As a result, the contribution of net external demand was higher than in the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2023, a significant deceleration in the import deflator was observed, more intense than the slowdown in the export deflator, leading to gains in terms of trade, for the first time since the first quarter of 2021.


Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP increased by 1.6 percent in volume (0.3 percent growth in the previous quarter), reflecting the positive contribution of net external demand (after being negative in the fourth quarter), largely resulting from the dynamism of exports, while the domestic demand contribution turned negative.


This flash estimate incorporates new primary information, namely regarding international trade in goods for the fourth quarter of 2022. This new set of information did not imply revisions in the year-on-year and quarter on quarter rates of change of GDP in comparison with the dissemination of the results of the Quarterly Sector Accounts on March 24, 2023.