Merchandise exports rose 33.3% in annual terms in July, slowing considerably from July’s meteoric 74.8%. July’s reading was still in part influenced by a low base effect. Meanwhile, merchandise imports soared 47.7% on an annual basis in July (June: +73.3% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 0.9 billion surplus in July (June 2021: USD 1.2 billion surplus; July 2020: USD 1.0 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 12.5 billion surplus in July, compared to the USD 12.6 billion surplus in June.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that exports will surge 22.3% in 2021 and imports will rocket 17.6%, bringing the trade surplus to USD 11.0 billion. For 2022, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports to expand 5.2%, while imports are projected to rise 6.7%, bringing the trade surplus to USD 11.0 billion.