The study estimates the direct impact of tariffs on targeted countries, the indirect effects via trade and production linkages, and also the potential for trade redirection. The study examines three scenarios: current; bilateral escalation; and worse-case. The current scenario describes the tariffs in place as of May 31, 2019, and includes the rise in US tariff rates (to 25%) on $200bn worth of Chinese goods that took place on May 10, 2019. The bilateral escalation scenario assumes 25% tariff rates on all US imports from the PRC and all PRC imports from US. The worse-case scenario adds to this second scenario a 25% tariff on US imports of autos and auto parts and a tit-for-tat 25% retaliatory tariff from affected economies.