Agência para o Investimento e Comércio Externo de Portugal


The growing trade battle that broke out in early 2018 between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) means GDP could be lower by as much as 1 percentage point in the PRC and 0.2 percentage point in the United States over a period of 2-3 years relative to a no-conflict scenario, according to a new ADB working paper The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia.

The study estimates the direct impact of tariffs on targeted countries, the indirect effects via trade and production linkages, and also the potential for trade redirection. The study examines three scenarios: current; bilateral escalation; and worse-case. The current scenario describes the tariffs in place as of May 31, 2019, and includes the rise in US tariff rates (to 25%) on $200bn worth of Chinese goods that took place on May 10, 2019. The bilateral escalation scenario assumes 25% tariff rates on all US imports from the PRC and all PRC imports from US. The worse-case scenario adds to this second scenario a 25% tariff on US imports of autos and auto parts and a tit-for-tat 25% retaliatory tariff from affected economies.


More here.