Agência para o Investimento e Comércio Externo de Portugal


The figures that were revealed this morning are more pessimistic than those forecast by Banco de Portugal (down 8.1%) and by the Ministry of Finance (-8.5%), but are in line with the forecasts of the Council of Public Finance (also -9.3%).

On the other hand, they are more optimistic than the forecasts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, -9.4%) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF, -10.0%).

For 2021, the European Commission forecasts economic growth of 5.4% in Portugal, identical to what was forecast by the Government, a downward revision of the July estimates (growth of 6.0%), still awaiting a growth of 3.5% of GDP in 2022.


Still on national economic data, the European Commission worsened the forecasts for the Portuguese public deficit and debt for 2020. Expects a negative budget balance of 7.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in line with the Government, and a public debt of 135.1% of GDP .2


These are more optimistic forecasts than those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which foresees a budget balance of -8.4% of GDP, and those of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, -7.9%), being more optimistic in one tenth (-7.2%) than those of the Public Finance Council (CFP).


Regarding public debt, the number is more negative in three tenths than expected by the Government (134.8% of GDP), but more optimistic in relation to the IMF (137.2%), CFP (137.6%) forecasts and OECD (135.9%).


Regarding the unemployment rate, the European Commission has improved its forecasts for 2020, with a pointed value of 8.0% this year, after having forecast 9.7% in May.


The forecast is more optimistic than the figures expected for this year by the Government (8.7%), the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 8.1%), the Public Finance Council (CFP, 10.0%) and the Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OECD, 11.6%), being more pessimistic than the forecast of Banco de Portugal (7.5%).


For 2021, Brussels sees the unemployment rate drop to 7.7% (6.6% in 2022), a figure in line with that of the IMF (also 7.7%), but below the OECD (9.6% ), CFP (8.8%) and Ministry of Finance (8.2%).


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